estimates – The B Square

Based on new estimates released on Thursday, Bloomington’s population has bumped up by 800 people compared to the 2020 census count.

The US Census Bureau (USCB) now estimates the city of Bloomington to have 79,968 residents. That’s as of July 1, 2021. The USCB calls this set of estimates the Vintage 2021 population estimates.

While some amount of estimated growth could be encouraging for Bloomington officials, it does not change the fact that the 2020 census counted just 79,168 residents, compared to 80,405 ten years earlier.

Bloomington’s still relatively low figure in Thursday’s release of new estimates does not bear on the question of how accurate the 2020 census count was. That’s because the estimates start with a base that is calculated using 2020 census data as one of the components.

The city of Bloomington’s position is that the 2020 census missed a few thousand residents in Bloomington—because Indiana University student residents were told to return to their hometowns when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. That was just before April 1, 2022, which was the official census count day. Continue reading “US Census Vintage 2021 estimates: 800 more people in Bloomington compared to 2020 decennial count” →

Tuesday’s news from Indiana’s state budget agency (SBA) can be analyzed by local governments in Monroe County as at least OK.

The SBA’s estimated distribution of local income tax revenue to Monroe County governments is about 9.3 percent higher for 2021 than it was for 2020.

That’s not a complete surprise. A big impact from the COVID-19 pandemic on income tax revenues to Indiana local governments is not expected to be felt until 2022. That’s when distributions of local income taxes (LITs) will be based on the tax collected on income earned in the pandemic year of 2020.

Still, in late summer this year, local governments were drawing up initial budgets for 2021 with some caution baked in. Even though the 2021 LIT distributions are based on taxes collected on income earned in 2019, there was some concern that the ability of wage earners to pay those taxes this year might have been be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. That concern looks like it has been somewhat relieved by Tuesday’s estimates from the SBA.

But based on the SBA estimates, the increased amount of revenues that Bloomington can likely factor into its 2021 plans will not be enough to tip the balance from a deficit budget to one where revenues exceed expenses.

Responding to a query from The Square Beacon, city communications director Yael Ksander said that “[T]he allocation for the City would still not equal the amount of deficit spending the 2021 budget proposes.”

Planned expenditures won’t be affected by Tuesday’s SBA estimates, Ksander said. “The 2021 expenditure budget will not be revised in light of these new estimates. This additional revenue would simply diminish the level of deficit spending.” Less deficit spending means the city will won’t have to tap as much in reserves as it had planned. Continue reading “Income tax estimates from state for Monroe County, Bloomington 2021 budgets: Up 9.3 percent compared to last year” →