Analysis: 2024 edition of Bloomington city council will be different, by a little or a lot

In 2023, elections will be held for 11 Bloomington city offices—mayor, clerk, and the nine seats on the city council.

After the 2023 city elections, the composition of the nine-member Bloomington city council, which will be sworn in to start 2024, is sure to be different by at least one member. But it could be more.

That’s based on the fact that it’s not possible to serve or to run as mayor and city councilmember at the same time.

Also in the mix are new city council district boundaries, and a somewhat easier path to the ballot for candidates who want to run independent of a political party.

City council president Susan Sandberg has announced she’s running for mayor, which means she’s not running for city council.

To file an official declaration, Sandberg like other candidates in the municipal election, will have a 30-day window that starts Jan. 4, 2023, 118 days before the May 2, 2023 primary. Sandberg’s committee paperwork has already been filed.

The city is divided into six geographic districts, corresponding to six of the council seats. The other three seats are elected at large, that is, citywide. Sandberg is an at-large city councilmember, which means at least one of the three at-large council seats will be without an incumbent for the 2023 elections.

Other than the seat now held by Sandberg, the other two at-large seats could have the same representation in 2024—if both Jim Sims and Matt Flaherty were to seek and win re-election. That’s possible, but not guaranteed.

All things being equal, the city council’s early October adoption of new district boundaries would point to two additional new faces on the currently all-Democrat council.

Just two of the six current district representatives on the city council landed in districts where they are the only incumbent—Isabel Piedmont-Smith in District 1, and Ron Smith in District 3. They could choose not to run, or might not win reelection even if they run. But that’s a different scenario than a situation where two current district representatives have wound up in the same district.

The new district boundaries put incumbents Kate Rosenbarger and Sue Sgambelluri in District 2. They’re both first-term councilmembers. In 2019, Sgambelluri won her Democratic primary (for the former District 2) over incumbent Dorothy Granger and challenger Daniel Bingham. Sgambelluri won the general election in 2019 over Republican candidate Andrew Guenther.

In 2019, Rosenbarger won the Democratic primary (for the former District 1) over incumbent Chris Sturbaum and challenger Denise Valkyrie. Rosenbarger was unopposed in the general election.

Because there were no contested races for mayor, clerk or at-large council seats, the county election board decided not to hold a general election at all in 2019, except in Districts 2 and District 3 where the city council races were contested. In the 2019 District 3 race, Ron Smith narrowly outpointed independent Nick Kappas.

Also landing in the same district, after the new boundaries were drawn, are Dave Rollo and Steve Volan. They’re the longest-serving members on the council. Volan started his service in 2004. The year before that, Rollo was caucused into a vacant seat.

Rollo and Volan both live in the newly drawn District 4. In 2019, Volan faced no opponent in either the primary or the general election in the former District 6. Volan also faced no opponent in 2015, for either the primary or general elections.

During the city council deliberations on redistricting, Volan said about the new district map, “I could run against my honorable colleague Dave Rollo. If I want to continue my career as a councilmember in the same [numbered] district, I’d be forced to move, or I’d have to consider running at large, or retiring.”

To sum up, if none of the six current district representatives move to a different district, or choose to run at large, that would mean that two more current city councilmembers, besides Sandberg, would not return in 2024.

The newly drawn District 4, like the old District 4, is an area of the city that includes older neighborhoods, where voter turnout is relatively high. Based on The B Square’s analysis, for the Nov. 8, 2022 general election, which just concluded, the raw number turnout in the new District 4 was the highest of any Bloomington city council district.

The old District 6 was an area with a high concentration of Indiana University students. The newly drawn District 6 has an even higher concentration of college students. Achieving higher student participation in elections has been a persistent challenge.

Comparing turnout in same-numbered council districts in 2018 to same-numbered districts in 2022, they all showed decreased numbers. But District 6 was off by more than other districts.

For potential candidates for city council who would like to run for a seat unaffiliated with any party—especially for those who might be mulling a run in District 6—the lighter turnout in 2022, compared to 2018, is good news.

To qualify for the ballot, an unaffiliated candidate has to collect a number of signatures that is at least 2 percent of the total number of votes cast by voters in the district for the most recent secretary of state election. Based on unofficial vote totals from the Nov. 8 secretary of state election, here’s the B Square’s breakdown for the number of signatures required for each city council district.

Unofficial, based on unofficial 2022 results (no provisional ballots)

For potential candidates who want to declare a candidacy for office affiliated with a party, it’s not as simple as deciding to run as a Democrat or a Republican.

Under Indiana election law, in order for someone to declare a run for office as a candidate who is affiliated with some party, the most recent two primaries in which the person has participated  have to be that party’s primary. The requirement for the proper primary voting record is a part of the form that candidates fill out.

If someone doesn’t have the required primary voting record, it’s still possible to declare as a candidate affiliated with a party, if the county’s party chair signs off on it.