On Tuesday, Kerry Thomson won a clear 10-point victory over second-place finisher Susan Sandberg in the race for the Democratic Party’s nomination for mayor of Bloomington.
Thomson did not get a majority of the 8,012 votes in the three-way race.
Thomson’s 3,444 votes gave her about 43 percent of the vote, compared to 33 percent (2,644) for Susan Sandberg and 24 percent (1,924) for Don Griffin.
No Republican has yet declared a candidacy for mayor and no independent candidate has submitted the required 352 signatures to qualify for the November ballot. To appear on the ballot as an independent candidate for mayor or city council, qualifying signatures have to be submitted by June 30.
So it’s likely that Thomson will be the next mayor of Bloomington. Incumbent mayor John Hamilton did not seek re-election.
Sandberg’s unsuccessful mayoral bid means that in 2024 she won’t be serving as an elected official in Bloomington for the first time in 17 years. Sandberg’s mayoral run meant that she did not seek re-election to the city council.
Tuesday’s primary results mean that no more than four of Bloomington city council incumbents will still be serving on the city council in 2024. The four who will likely still be serving are: Isabel Piedmont-Smith (District 1); Kate Rosenbarger (District 2); Dave Rollo (District 4); and Matt Flaherty (at large).
Otherwise put, when the next edition of Bloomington’s city council is sworn in on Jan. 1, 2024, five current councilmembers won’t be taking the oath.
Sandberg’s departure from the city council was a given, before any primary election results were known.
At-large councilmember Jim Sims did not seek re-election.
Also known was the fact that just one of a pair of other incumbents—Kate Rosenbarger and Sue Sgambelluri—could continue in 2024. The result of redistricting in 2022 put both of those incumbents in District 2.
It was Rosenbarger who prevailed on Tuesday, receiving 679 votes (51.48 percent) compared to Sgambelluri’s 640 (48.52 percent). The 39-vote margin was the closest of any city council race.
Three was the number of guaranteed departures from the council.
Adding to the number of incumbents who are leaving the council at the end of the year was District 3 representative Ron Smith, who lost a three-way race to Hopi Stosberg. She received 584 votes (57.31 percent) compared to 277 votes (27.18 percent) for Smith, and 158 votes (15.51 percent) for Conner Wright.
Stosberg will square off against Republican Brett Heinisch in the general election. Heinisch is the only declared Republican candidate for Bloomington city council.
Making it five departures from the city council was Steve Volan, who placed sixth out of seven candidates for the three at-large council seats.
The top vote getter in the at-large city council race was challenger Isak Asare who received 4,194 votes (19.91 percent). Placing second was challenger and former city councilmember Andy Ruff, whose 3,961 votes gave him 18.81 percent of the votes that were cast. Taking the third spot was incumbent Matt Flaherty with 3,726 votes (17.69 percent).
In the at-large race, the spread between first and third place was about 2 points. But the break between third place and fourth place was about 4 points.
Two other probable newcomers to the council are Shruti Rana and David Wolfe Bender.
Rana won the race for the District 5 nomination over another newcomer, Jenny Stevens. As the result of redistricting, no incumbent lives in District 5. Rana received 1,291 votes (58.13 percent) compared to 930 votes (41.87 percent) for Stevens.
Bender was unopposed in the District 6 race. Whether he stays on the ballot as the Democratic Party’s nominee for the District 6 city council seat could be determined at a May 18 election board hearing on the question of Bender’s residency.
Keeping a spot on the city council was Isabel Piedmont-Smith, who won the District 1 race over challenger Joe Lee. Piedmont Smith received 708 votes (58.18 percent) compared to 509 votes (41.82 percent) for Lee.
Also keeping a spot on the city council was Dave Rollo, who was unopposed in the race for the District 4 nomination.
For Rollo’s uncontested race, there were 383 people who did not fill in the oval next to Rollo’s name, compared to 1,471 who did, which is a 20.7-percent undervote. [383/(383+1,471)]
For Bender’s unopposed race, 32 people who went to the polls didn’t fill in the oval for Bender, compared to 69 who did. That’s a 31.6-percent undervote. [32/(32+69)]
Significant undervotes are generally expected in uncontested races—because many voters choose to protest the lack of a choice by not filling in the oval for the one candidate appearing on the ballot.
But the rate of undervoting for Bender was a lot higher—and for Rollo a little bit higher—than for the other unopposed race on the ballot, which was for city clerk.
Nicole Bolden was the only candidate for city clerk on the ballot—and 6,543 voters filled in the oval beside her name, compared to 1,502 who did not. That’s an 18.6 percent undervote. [1,502/(1,502+6,543)]
Predictive value of polls?
A scientific poll of Bloomington’s mayoral race, conducted by The B Square in early March, showed that 58 percent of voters were still undecided. The breakdown was: Griffin, 9 percent of all voters; Sandberg, 15 percent of all voters; and Thomson, 18 percent of all voters.
Among just the voters who had decided, here’s how the polling percentages work out, compared to the actual percentages from Tuesday’s results.
Griffin: 9/(9+15+18) = 21.4 percent. Griffin’s actual result= 24.01 percent.
Sandberg: 15/(9+15+18) = 35.7 percent. Sandberg’s actual result = 33.00 percent.
Thomson: 18/(9+15+18) = 42.9 percent. Thomson’s actual result = 42.99 percent.
A prediction of primary election results made just on the basis of those voters who had already decided on their mayoral choice in early March would have been close to the actual results.
District 1 Bloomington city council
District 2 Bloomington city council
District 3 Bloomington city council
District 5 Bloomington city council
At-large Bloomington city council
|Kate Rosenbarger||probably||won District 2 primary against Sgambelluri|
|Sue Sgambelluri||no||lost District 2 primary against Rosenbarger|
|Ron Smith||no||lost District 3 primary to challenger Hopi Stosberg|
|Dave Rollo||probably||was unchallenged in District 4 primary|
|Isabel Piedmont-Smith||probably||won District 1 primary|
|Steve Volan||no||did not run in District 4, lost bid for at-large seat|
|Susan Sandberg||no||ran for mayor instead|
|Jim Sims||no||did not run for re-election|
|Matt Flaherty||probably||won bid for re-election to at-large seat|
|Blmgton Mayor (D)||Kerry Thomson||3444||42.99%|
|Blmgton Mayor (D) Total||8012|
|Blmgton Clerk (D)||Nicole Bolden||6543||100.00%|
|Blmgton Clerk (D) Total||6543|
|Blmgton District 1 (D)||Isabel Piedmont-Smith||708||58.18%|
|Blmgton District 1 (D) Total||1217|
|Blmgton District 2 (D)||Kate Rosenbarger||679||51.48%|
|Blmgton District 2 (D) Total||1319|
|Blmgton District 3 (D)||Hopi Stosberg||584||57.31%|
|Blmgton District 3 (D) Total||1019|
|Blmgton District 3 (R)||Brett Heinisch||45||100.00%|
|Blmgton District 3 (R) Total||45|
|Blmgton District 4 (D)||Dave Rollo||1471||100.00%|
|Blmgton District 4 (D) Total||1471|
|Blmgton District 5 (D)||Shruti Rana||1291||58.13%|
|Blmgton District 5 (D) Total||2221|
|Blmgton District 6 (D)||David Wolfe Bender||69||100.00%|
|Blmgton District 6 (D) Total||69|
|Blmgton At Large (D)||Isak Asare||4194||19.91%|
|Blmgton At Large (D) Total||21061|
|Ellettsville Clerk/Treasurer (R)||Noelle M Conyer||126||57.27%|
|Paul A Turner||52||23.64%|
|Ellettsville Clerk/Treasurer (R) Total||220|
|Ellettsville Ward 2 (R)||William Ellis||179||100.00%|
|Ellettsville Ward 2 (R) Total||179|
|Ellettsville Ward 3 (R)||Scott Oldham||180||100.00%|
|Ellettsville Ward 3 (R) Total||180|
|Ellettsville Town Council (R)||Trevor Sager||174||100.00%|
|Ellettsville Town Council (R) Total||174|