Monroe County early voting: Will final 9 days match big surge during same period in 2016?

Tomorrow (Saturday, Oct. 26) is the first Saturday when Monroe County’s election operations building is open for early in-person voting.

The early in-person voting totals in Monroe County this year are better than the numbers at the same point in the 2016 early voting process.

Through the first 13 days of early voting this year (ending Thursday, Oct. 24), an average of 1,224 people have cast a ballot. That’s more than the average of 1,056 people who voted during the first 13 days of the in-person early voting period in 2016.

The 2016 early voting period featured one fewer day, because it started on a Wednesday. That was due to a Monday Columbus Day holiday, which pushed voter registration to Tuesday that year.

So the significantly lower average per day eight years ago—coupled with the fact that there was one fewer day back then—might suggest that this year’s early voting totals will necessarily be dramatically better than in 2016, if this year’s pace up to now is more or less maintained.

But that assumes that the pace of early voting is pretty consistent through the four-week period. In 2016 it was not consistent, ramping up to an average of 1,629 voters per day in the final 9 days of early voting. The 2016 tallies featured a peak of 2,554 voters on the final Friday before the Tuesday Election Day.

That means in order to match the total of 27,024 in-person early voters for 2016, the pace in the final two weeks this year will need to pick up at least a little bit, by an average of about 10 voters per day.

But if this year, the final 9-day total matches the 14,663 voters who cast an in-person ballot in 2016, that would bring this year’s total to 30,576, or about 3,500 more early in-person voters than in 2016.

Before the deadline passed, another 4,966 voters requested a mail-in absentee ballot this year. In 2016, just 3,965 mailed in an absentee ballot. This year, if all 4,966 requested mail-in absentee ballots are returned, that will make for 35,542 total votes in advance of Election Day.

In 2016, the advance votes amounted to about 51.8 percent of the 59,847 total voters. If Monroe County sees 35,542 advance votes this year, and the advance voting proportion remains the same as in 2016, that would translate into a total turnout of about 68,600. That’s around 9,000 more than the 59,847 who voted in 2016.

The 2020 early voting patterns were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s why The B Square is using 2016 as a benchmark year.

Here’s the remaining early voting schedule: