Early voting off to fast start in Monroe County; free parking at North Showers site

Early voting for the May 5 primaries is off to a fast start in Monroe County.

Looking at the five most recent midterm elections, the 632 ballots cast in the first four days of early voting this year are 38.5% more than the 457 in the same period in 2018, which is the next highest year’s total. Those numbers are based on the data dashboard that Monroe County’s GIS division is maintaining for early voting numbers.

Based on the 15.8 early voters per hour tallied so far this year, that would project to 3,286 voters for the whole 208 hours. But that would be a conservative estimate, because historically, early voting numbers pick up dramatically in the third and fourth weeks of the early voting period.

A more aggressive estimate for early voting numbers would assume that this year’s early numbers will outpace the 2018 total after four weeks by the same percentage they have in the first four days. In 2018, there were 5,032 early voters. That aggressive estimate works out to 5,032 + (5,032*.385) = 6,969 early votes.

One of the more closely watched races in this year’s primaries is the race for the Democratic Party’s nomination for county commissioner, between Trent Deckard and David Henry. For election analysts who wonder how many votes it might take to win that race, one way to approach it would be to apply the same 38.5% increase in early voting numbers in the first four days, compared to 2018, and assume that percentage holds for total turnout this year. That’s probably an aggressive estimate.

But in 2018, the Democratic Party’s primary in the race for U.S. senator saw 12,007 ballots cast. The aggressive estimate would work out to (12,007*.385) = 16,630 ballots cast in the Democratic Party's primary this year. If that projection is right, then for a candidate to win a two-way race like the one for county commissioner, they would need at least 8,315 votes.

New is the location for early voting this year—at the county-government-owned North Showers building at 9th and Morton streets in downtown Bloomington.

There’s a Route 2W bus stop at 7th and Morton Street, which means a two-block walk north on Morton Street to get to early voting.

Spaces in the parking in the lot off Morton Street have been reserved for early voters, and is free.