Monroe County 2024 primary winners: Thomas, Madeira, Van Deventer, Munson, Deckard, Henry

The unofficial tallies for Monroe County voting in the Tuesday, May 7 primary elections made for the following outcomes in contested local races for respective party nominations:

• Incumbent Democrat Julie Thomas over Peter Iversen for District 2 county commissioner;
• Democrat Jody Madeira over Steve Volan and incumbent Penny Githens for District 3 county commissioner;
• Incumbent Democrats Trent Deckard and Cheryl Munson ahead of David Henry and Matt Caldie for the three at-large county council seats, with Henry slightly better than Caldie; and
• Republican Joe Van Deventer over Paul White, Sr. for District 3 county commissioner.

The race for the Democratic Party’s nomination for District 3 county commissioner did not turn out to be as close as a pre-election poll would have suggested. The poll showed Githens and Madeira in a dead heat, but with the majority of voters undecided.  Madeira’s actual vote total amounted to about a 10-point margin over Githens.

For the District 2 county commissioner race, the pre-election poll suggested that Thomas had an advantage of around 14 points—if the undecided voters wound up falling into the same proportions as those who gave a definite answer to the poll. Thomas’s actual margin over Iversen was just around 3 points.

The pre-election poll indicated that in the race among four Democrats for the nomination to three at-large city council seats, two of the seats would probably be settled clearly in favor of the two incumbents, Cheryl Munson and Trent Deckard, with the third spot a closer affair.

The race between David Henry and Matt Caldie for the third spot was as suggested by the poll in fact reasonably close. Just 1 percentage point separated Henry and Caldie.

Early Voters versus Election-Day Voters

At 16.5 points, Madeira’s margin among Election Day voters was bigger than her overall margin of around 10 points. Madeira was just 2 points better than Githens among voters who mailed in an absentee ballot or voted early in person.

Volan was also relatively better among Election Day voters compared to early voters, but was still a clear third place. Githens was just 4 points better than Volan on Election Day, but she had a nearly 17-point margin over Volan among early voters.

In his race against Thomas, Iversen showed a similar pattern to Madeira and Volan. Iversen was stronger among Election Day voters compared to early voters. In fact, Iversen would have won the race, if early votes did not count—because he had a nearly 2.5-point margin over Thomas among Election Day voters. But Thomas was 10 points better than Iversen among early voters, which made for her total margin of 3 points.

Caldie followed a similar pattern of showing a stronger result on Election Day than among early voters. Among Election Day voters, Caldie was a half point stronger than Henry, and would have come in third, if early voters were not counted. But among early voters, Caldie was about 3 points behind Henry.

Bloomington versus non-Bloomington

Bloomington’s years long effort to annex territory into the city, which was highlighted by in a week-long trial in the run-up to the election, was a big election issue for residents who live in the unincorporated part of the county. The outcome of the trial is still pending.

Incumbents Julie Thomas and Penny Githens are opposed to Bloomington’s effort at annexation, and made it a part of their campaign strategy.

Based on that background, it would be expected that their election numbers would be stronger outside Bloomington than inside the city. And in fact, the precinct-by-precinct results show that Githens and Thomas had more support outside Bloomington than inside the city.

For District 3, Githens was within 4.5 points of Madeira outside of Bloomington. But inside the city limits, Githens was 14  points behind Madeira.

For District 2, Thomas was 15 points better than Iversen outside the city limits, but inside Bloomington, Iversen was 5  points better than Thomas.

In the race for county councilor, Caldie was stronger inside of Bloomington than outside. Caldie was almost a half  a point better than Henry inside city limits. But outside Bloomington, Caldie was about 3 points behind Henry.

[The geographic analysis was corrected on May 9, 2024 to accurately reflect the contributions made by one city precinct and one county precinct to their respective geographic regions. The changes did not affect the trends or conclusions reported here.]