With three weeks left before the May 7 primary Election Day, a scientific poll shows most voters still unsure about their choice of candidates in local Monroe County races.
In the three-way race for the Democratic Party’s nomination for District 3 Monroe County commissioner, 60 percent of poll respondents are still unsure.
But among those who have made up their minds, it’s a dead heat between incumbent Penny Githens and challenger Jody Madeira, each of whom had support from 15 percent of respondents. At 10 percent is Steve Volan.
In the race for the Democratic Party’s nomination for District 2 Monroe County commissioner, 65 percent are unsure about their pick. But among those who have made up their minds, incumbent Julie Thomas (20 percent) has a 5-point edge over challenger Peter Iversen (15 percent).
In the race for the three county councilor at-large seats, four candidates are vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Voters can pick up to three candidates in the race. But just 35 percent of voters were able to say who they would pick as their first choice, leaving 65 percent unsure.
Adding up the percentages of poll respondents who would rank each candidate first, second or third, shows even support for incumbents Cheryl Munson and Trent Deckard, at 24 percent. Of the poll respondents, 14 percent would rank David Henry first, second, or third. And 11 percent would put Matt Caldie in their top three.
There is only one contested local race for Republicans. In the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for District 3 Monroe County commissioner, 71 percent of poll respondents are still unsure. For those who picked a candidate, Joe VanDeventer has an edge over Paul White, Sr. with 21 percent compared to 8 percent.
The text-to-web poll was conducted from April 9 through April 11 for The B Square by Public Policy Polling (PPP) a company based in North Carolina. Responding to the poll were 995 likely voters in the Democratic Party’s primary and 527 likely voters in the Republican Party’s primary. The margin of error for PPP polls like this is around +/- 4 percent. [Added April 14, 2024: For the Democrats, the margin of error was +/- 3.1 percent. For the Republicans, it was +/- 4.3 percent.]
Despite the high number of voters who are undecided with three weeks remaining, the results could have some predictive value. For last year’s Bloomington mayoral race, a PPP poll, which was conducted a month earlier in the cycle, also showed a high number of undecided voters (58 percent).
The breakdown in the poll was: Don Griffin, 9 percent of all voters; Susan Sandberg, 15 percent of all voters; and Kerry Thomson, 18 percent of all voters. Among just the voters who had decided on a candidate when the poll was taken, here’s how the polling percentages worked out, compared to the actual percentages from the May 2, 2023 primary results.
Griffin: 9/(9+15+18) = 21.4 percent. Griffin’s actual result= 24.01 percent.
Sandberg: 15/(9+15+18) = 35.7 percent. Sandberg’s actual result = 33.00 percent.
Thomson: 18/(9+15+18) = 42.9 percent. Thomson’s actual result = 42.99 percent.
A prediction of primary election results made just on the basis of those voters who had already decided on their mayoral choice in early March of 2023 would have been close to the actual results.
In the contests for county commissioner this year, there’s a trend that cuts across all three races: The youngest age category has the highest number of poll respondents who are unsure about their choices.
The poll shows a couple of differences in the patterns for the two county commissioner races for Democrats.
County Commissioner District 3 Democrats
In the District 3 race, Madeira is on pace with Githens overall, but is outpointing Githens among male poll respondents (16 percent to 11 percent). Volan is even with Githens among male voters, at 11 percent. Among female respondents, Githens is stronger, with 19 percent, compared to 15 percent for Madeira.
In the District 3 race, Githens is behind both Madeira and Volan among poll respondents who are in the youngest age category, age 18–29. But for the oldest age bracket, voters older than 65, Githens is 8 points better than Madeira and 15 points better than Volan. Madeira is 6 points better than Githens, and 9 points better than Volan for respondents who are aged 46–65.
In the District 3 race, poll respondents inside and outside of Bloomington showed about the same relative support for each candidate.
County Commissioner District 2 Democrats
In the District 2 race, Iversen is 5 points behind Thomas overall, but is 2 points better than Thomas among males. The 5-point overall margin for Thomas comes from a 9-point advantage among female respondents.
In the District 2 race, Iversen is 3 points better than Thomas for respondents who are aged 18–29 and within 2 points of Thomas for respondents aged 30–45. But for respondents aged 46–65 and those older than 65, Thomas is at least 7 points better than Iversen.
In the District 2 race, Iversen is just 1 point down from Thomas among respondents inside Bloomington, but Thomas has a 15-point margin among Monroe County respondents outside of Bloomington.
Links to candidate information
Democrats: District 2 Monroe County Commissioner
Peter Iversen campaign website
Peter Iversen Vote 411 profile
Julie Thomas campaign website
Julie Thomas Vote411 profile
Democrats: District 3 Monroe County Commissioner
Penny Githens campaign website
Penny Githens Vote411 profile
Jody Madeira campaign website
Jody Madeira Vote 411 profile
Steve Volan campaign website
Steve Volan Vote411 profile
Democrats: At-large Monroe County Councilor
Matt Caldie Vote411 profile
Matt Caldie campaign website
Trent Deckard Vote411 profile
Trent Deckard campaign website
David Henry Vote411 profile
David Henry campaign website
Cheryl Munson Vote411 profile
Cheryl Munson campaign website
All Charts
There is a basic bit of information missing in this article. What was the response rate?
When I worked for the Center for Survey Research decades ago we aimed for and achieved a 70% response rate. When I worked on Fed/State programs with the Indiana Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics we reached 90% response rates.
I’ve been out of the business for a long time. But my understanding is that pollsters can only dream of such high response rates these days, making polls highly unreliable. Estimating the responses of non-respondents is a tricky process, but it seems to be the chief skill of the pollster these days.
That said, accuracy of the results of the March 2023 survey are astounding. Sample sizes for the current survey seem really large by 80’s standards. How does the pollster account for non-respondents, Dave?
Are respondents unsure or are they simply unaware or don’t care?
Are respondents unsure or simply unaware or don’t care?