COVID-19 update: Top Hoosier health official’s forecast of “very steep rise in cases” true just one day later

Kristina Box, the health commissioner for the state of Indiana, warned at a Wednesday news conference about the looming impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.

Box put it this way: “We expect to see a very steep rise in cases over the next several weeks.”

On Thursday, the update to the state’s dashboard for COVID-19 data showed the biggest number of reported cases for any day since the start of the pandemic about 22 months ago.

According to the dashboard data, across the state of Indiana, 12,004 positive cases were reported for Dec. 29. That’s 1.5 times the previous high of 8,436 on Dec. 2, 2020.

The 12,004 cases pushed the current 7-day rolling average of positive cases in the Hoosier state to 5,784. Up until Thursday’s update, the statewide rolling averages had been trending in the low- to mid-4,000s.

In Monroe County, the positive cases reported for Dec. 29 showed a similar spike. The 163 cases reported for Dec. 29 in Monroe County made for the second-highest total of the pandemic. The only day with a higher total was Sept. 10, 2020, when 235 positive tests were recorded.

Late in the day on Thursday, the city of Bloomington reported an additional eight employees had tested positive for the pandemic virus, which made for 36 cases in the month of December. That outpaced the previous monthly high of 22, which was recorded in December 2020.

The one statistic that has not shown a steep increase in late 2021 has been the number of deaths. In Monroe County, November this year saw 17 deaths due to COVID-19, compared to 16 in 2020.

In December last year, 60 people in Monroe County died of the pandemic virus, according to state department of health statistics. In December 2021 so far, Monroe County has seen 12 COVID-19 deaths, just one-fifth the number last year.

The figure will likely climb by at least a few cases, when the book is closed on December this year. That’s because the month has a couple days left, and  deaths are assigned to the date of the death, not the day it was reported. That means deaths that happen in late December, but are not reported until early January, will still be logged in the state’s dataset by their December date.

Hospitalizations, in contrast to deaths, have spiked right along with the number of confirmed positive cases.

As IU Health south central region president Brian Shockney put it at Thursday’s news conference of local Bloomington leaders: “We are beyond our bed capacity—if you want to talk about what was designated for inpatient beds. I think probably every hospital in the state is at that point as well.”

Shockney described how IU Health’s new hospital facility, on Bloomington’s east side near the SR-46 bypass, is designed to have flexible room configurations that allow the hospital to “flex” the space. Beds not designated for inpatients are being adapted for that use.

Shockney described some beds that are typically used for surgical patients—they would normally start and end their procedures there. Given that all except for emergency surgical procedures have been stopped, those rooms are now being used for COVID-19 patients, Shockney said.

Shockney closed out his remarks by asking that people keep their New Year’s gatherings small. “I’d like to ask you to keep your New Year’s celebration to those small groups and families where you’re being safe and stopping the spread of this virus.”

Shockney talked about the best way to honor those who have suffered with COVID-19, the healthcare and public health heroes, and those who have died. Shockney called on people to usher in 2022 in a “peaceful and respectful way, remembering the past and protecting our future.”

Monroe County COVID-19 update: Vaccine distribution, infection rates show good relative trends, absolute picture still not ideal

Monroe County’s two COVID-19 vaccination clinics are able to deliver almost all of the vaccine they’re being allocated by the state of Indiana into the arms of the county’s residents.

That’s the latest word from Brian Shockney, president of IU Health’s south central region.

Speaking at Friday’s weekly press conference of local leaders, Shockney said that through Jan. 27, Bloomington has dispensed 14,717 of the 16,100 doses (91 percent) that have been allocated to Monroe County. By the end of Friday, Shockney said that number would rise even higher.

Shockney said on Friday, “Bloomington’s vaccine site has been outperforming every vaccine site in the IU Health system in regards to our utilization rate.” Shockney said that reflects IU Health’s commitment to making Monroe County the first county to be immunized at a high enough rate to get out of the pandemic.

Infection numbers, deaths and hospitalization  are all trending down, across the state and in the county.

One of the key stats with a local trend in the right direction, and markedly better than elsewhere in the state, is the rolling average “all tests” positivity rate.

For Monroe County the positivity rate has now dropped to 2.9 percent. That is well below the 5-percent threshold that qualifies Monroe County for the best possible score on the state’s two-metric green-yellow-orange-red color-coding scheme.

Even though Monroe County’s numbers for vaccinations and positivity rates are good compared to stats from other places, in absolute terms the picture is still sobering. Continue reading “Monroe County COVID-19 update: Vaccine distribution, infection rates show good relative trends, absolute picture still not ideal”

Monroe County starts 2021 with another death due to COVID-19

On Sunday, Indiana’s department of health dashboard noon update recorded one additional death in Monroe County due to the COVID-19 pandemic virus. It came on the first day of the year.

That brings Monroe County’s total COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic to 98. The first one was recorded on April 11.

About half of Monroe County deaths, 46 of them, have been recorded since the start of December of last year.

The current trend for deaths in Monroe County looks like it is dropping from its peak of 14 cases, which came during the week of Dec. 7, to half that for the most recent full week.

Statewide, the rolling 7-day average daily number of deaths is also showing a downward trend, from a peak of around 85 in mid-December, to about 70 by the end of the year. Continue reading “Monroe County starts 2021 with another death due to COVID-19”

Indiana COVID-19 positivity rate impacted by software error, fix will mean higher rates

Positivity rates will be changing on Indiana’s COVID-19 dashboard starting Wednesday next week (Dec. 30), but not due to differences in the number of actual positive tests.

At Governor Holcomb’s Wednesday press conference, Indiana’s health commissioner Kristina Box said that a software error had caused an error in past calculations. Statewide the numbers will increase by 2 or 3 points after the fix is made, she said. Counties will also see an impact.

The rolling average positivity rate in Monroe County is now about 5 percent, or about half of the statewide rate. The upward and downward trends for Monroe County and the state are roughly parallel, except for period when Indiana University students were returning to campus.

The rates that are now to be re-calculated show the same trends as those that were previously reported, according to Box, even if the absolute value of the numbers is different.

The new calculations would not have affected decisions that were made, Box said. Data on hospital resources and number of cases or deaths was not affected by the error, Box said. Continue reading “Indiana COVID-19 positivity rate impacted by software error, fix will mean higher rates”

New Hoosier daily high of 8,514 coronavirus cases, city of Bloomington employees contribute to count

Through Nov. 14, the city of Bloomington had logged 17 confirmed coronavirus cases among its employees.

On Thursday, the city issued two separate press releases announcing the 35th and 36th positive tests among city employees. That made for 19 cases in the last 19 days.

On Wednesday night, in remarks to the city council, Bloomington’s mayor John Hamilton put the number of positive COVID-19 tests at about 4 percent of the city’s work force.

That’s about the same as the prevailing percentage of confirmed cases in Monroe County, based on 6,048 confirmed cases out of a total population of 148,431.

It’s about a point less than the 5.3 percent of Hoosiers that are reflected in Thursday’s state department of health dashboard total of 359,430.

After some declines in numbers over Thanksgiving last week, Thursday this week saw the highest daily total in the state of Indiana since the pandemic started: 8,514.

Monroe County returned to daily case numbers of over 100 on three of the last four days, including Thursday’s 134, which put the rolling average at 89.

Monroe County health administrator Penny Caudill told The Square Beacon that she does not think spike of the last couple days indicates infections that came from Thanksgiving Day gatherings. Continue reading “New Hoosier daily high of 8,514 coronavirus cases, city of Bloomington employees contribute to count”